Thanks to David for writing this. Messaging about climate action has been and will always be like walking a tightrope due to the sheer complexity of the problem. There is a place for "doomerism" in the dialogue but it's best served in small doses.
An FYI that Rare (https://rare.org) has done some great work on behavior change as well, worth checking out!
I’m a climate communications specialist for a climate action consulting firm and this topic is something we always struggle with. How much versus how little do we incorporate hard, “doomy” realities into climate messaging? How do we meet people where they are when the “where” is such a huge spectrum? Is there enough time, and is it responsible to just patiently lead people into the issues at this point in the crisis?
While I certainly don’t have definitive answers to these questions, and, really, no one does- I found this article very informative and thought-provoking. This kind of data-driven content really helps people in my position think more critically about the communications we craft every day. Great work! Thank you for the read
As a "Doomer" I respect what you are saying and doing but you are 30 years to late. You state,
"Doomerism is a losing strategy. Leaning into anxiety and despair creates paralysis and depression. On the flip side, visually showing audiences a future that’s happier and healthier, and exposing them to the innovative technologies and solutions that will take us there, can inspire people to want to become a part of the climate movement."
False Hope is also “Disinformation".
Let me ask you a question David, "do you know the current RATE of WARMING?"
It's about 0.36C PER DECADE since 2015.
From 1850-1975 the rate of warming averages out at about 0.07C per decade.
From 1975-2015 the rate of warming averages out at about 0.18C per decade.
Around 2015 the rate of warming roughly doubled. We know exactly why.
Earth's Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine
P. R. Goode, E. Pallé, A. Shoumko, S. Shoumko, P. Montañes-Rodriguez, S. E. Koonin
The Earth's Albedo dimmed and radiant forcing doubled.
“We have reported a two-decade long data set of the Earth’s nearly globally averaged albedo as derived from earthshine observations. Stringent data quality standards were applied to generate monthly and annual means.
These vary significantly on monthly, annual, and decadal scales with the net being a gradual decline over the two decades, which accelerated in the most recent years (much of the decrease in reflectance occurred during the last three years of the two-decade period the team studied).
Remarkably, the inter-annual earthshine anomalies agree well with those from CERES satellite observations, despite their differences in global coverage, underlying assumptions to derive the albedo, and the very different sensitivities to retroflected and wider-angle reflected light.”
"The two-decade decrease in earthshine-derived albedo corresponds to an increase in radiative forcing of about 0.5 W/m2, which is climatologically significant (Miller et al., 2014).
For comparison, total anthropogenic forcing increased by about 0.6 W/m2 over the same period. The CERES data show an even stronger trend of decreasing global albedo over the most recent years, which has been associated to changes in the PDO, SSTs and low cloud formation changes."
Notice that last paragraph. It quantifies how much of an effect this change in albedo is having. By 2017 it had reached 0.5 W/m2 (Watts per square meter). That doesn’t sound like much, until you realize that the effect of all our CO2 pollution in 2017 was 0.6 W/m2. Bottom line,
By 2017 the decline in the Earth’s albedo doubled the rate that the Earth was warming. We are warming up twice as fast as we were.
You want to know how you can tell it's really happening?
You can tell because the Oceans are warming up, FAST.
Oceans surged to another record-high temperature in 2022 WAPO January 11, 2023
The amount of excess heat buried in the planet’s oceans, a strong marker of climate change, reached a record high in 2022, reflecting more stored heat energy than in any year since reliable measurements were available in the late 1950s, a group of scientists reported Wednesday.
That eclipses the ocean heat record set in 2021 — which eclipsed the record set in 2020, which eclipsed the one set in 2019.
Oceans Broke Yet Another Heat Record in 2022, Scientists Warn Science Alert Jan 12, 2023
In 2022, the heat content in the upper 2000 meters of the Pacific ocean reached a record level “by a large margin,” researchers say, “which supports the extreme events witnessed, such as intensive heat waves and deoxygenation, and poses a substantial risk to marine life in this region.”
THE OCEAN IS RELEASING HEAT. WE JUST HAD A FREAKISHLY "MILD” WINTER. BY THIS SUMMER HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS WILL BE DYING IN HEATWAVES.
This has stopped being a "both sides must be respected' and "people can agree to disagree" time in history.
I am forecasting famine deaths in the 800 million to 1.2 billion range over the next 4-6 years.
We are having "existential" crisis's at the Nation state level and at a Global "survival of civilization" level.
Articles like yours, band-aids on sucking chest wounds. Platitudes and feel good pablum that lull people into feeling that the crisis is still off in the distance and the wolf is not at the door, RIGHT NOW.
Let me ask you one last question David, "how warm do you think the MAJORITY of Climate Scientists think it/s going to get by 2100?"
What do Climate Scientists say IN PRIVATE?
A majority of climate scientists think that warming is going to be at least 3℃ or higher.
Thanks to David for writing this. Messaging about climate action has been and will always be like walking a tightrope due to the sheer complexity of the problem. There is a place for "doomerism" in the dialogue but it's best served in small doses.
An FYI that Rare (https://rare.org) has done some great work on behavior change as well, worth checking out!
Great post
I’m a climate communications specialist for a climate action consulting firm and this topic is something we always struggle with. How much versus how little do we incorporate hard, “doomy” realities into climate messaging? How do we meet people where they are when the “where” is such a huge spectrum? Is there enough time, and is it responsible to just patiently lead people into the issues at this point in the crisis?
While I certainly don’t have definitive answers to these questions, and, really, no one does- I found this article very informative and thought-provoking. This kind of data-driven content really helps people in my position think more critically about the communications we craft every day. Great work! Thank you for the read
💪🌎
It would be great if you could share some actual content examples (articles, videos, tweets etc) that demonstrate the insights in action.
As a "Doomer" I respect what you are saying and doing but you are 30 years to late. You state,
"Doomerism is a losing strategy. Leaning into anxiety and despair creates paralysis and depression. On the flip side, visually showing audiences a future that’s happier and healthier, and exposing them to the innovative technologies and solutions that will take us there, can inspire people to want to become a part of the climate movement."
False Hope is also “Disinformation".
Let me ask you a question David, "do you know the current RATE of WARMING?"
It's about 0.36C PER DECADE since 2015.
From 1850-1975 the rate of warming averages out at about 0.07C per decade.
From 1975-2015 the rate of warming averages out at about 0.18C per decade.
Around 2015 the rate of warming roughly doubled. We know exactly why.
Earth's Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine
P. R. Goode, E. Pallé, A. Shoumko, S. Shoumko, P. Montañes-Rodriguez, S. E. Koonin
First published: 29 August 2021
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094888
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL094888
The Earth's Albedo dimmed and radiant forcing doubled.
“We have reported a two-decade long data set of the Earth’s nearly globally averaged albedo as derived from earthshine observations. Stringent data quality standards were applied to generate monthly and annual means.
These vary significantly on monthly, annual, and decadal scales with the net being a gradual decline over the two decades, which accelerated in the most recent years (much of the decrease in reflectance occurred during the last three years of the two-decade period the team studied).
Remarkably, the inter-annual earthshine anomalies agree well with those from CERES satellite observations, despite their differences in global coverage, underlying assumptions to derive the albedo, and the very different sensitivities to retroflected and wider-angle reflected light.”
"The two-decade decrease in earthshine-derived albedo corresponds to an increase in radiative forcing of about 0.5 W/m2, which is climatologically significant (Miller et al., 2014).
For comparison, total anthropogenic forcing increased by about 0.6 W/m2 over the same period. The CERES data show an even stronger trend of decreasing global albedo over the most recent years, which has been associated to changes in the PDO, SSTs and low cloud formation changes."
Notice that last paragraph. It quantifies how much of an effect this change in albedo is having. By 2017 it had reached 0.5 W/m2 (Watts per square meter). That doesn’t sound like much, until you realize that the effect of all our CO2 pollution in 2017 was 0.6 W/m2. Bottom line,
By 2017 the decline in the Earth’s albedo doubled the rate that the Earth was warming. We are warming up twice as fast as we were.
I wrote about this last year on Medium.
Living in Bomb Time — 20 - Heat doesn’t “just happen”. Where it’s coming from and why that matters Feb 22 (https://smokingtyger.medium.com/living-in-bomb-time-20-64a268ef306a)
and extended my analysis here.
Living in Bomb Time — 22 - I’m actually being “conservative” when I tell you that things are bad. Additional thoughts on Albedo Dimming Apr 22 (https://smokingtyger.medium.com/living-in-bomb-time-22-c7825fce2f2a)
You want to know how you can tell it's really happening?
You can tell because the Oceans are warming up, FAST.
Oceans surged to another record-high temperature in 2022 WAPO January 11, 2023
The amount of excess heat buried in the planet’s oceans, a strong marker of climate change, reached a record high in 2022, reflecting more stored heat energy than in any year since reliable measurements were available in the late 1950s, a group of scientists reported Wednesday.
That eclipses the ocean heat record set in 2021 — which eclipsed the record set in 2020, which eclipsed the one set in 2019.
Oceans Broke Yet Another Heat Record in 2022, Scientists Warn Science Alert Jan 12, 2023
In 2022, the heat content in the upper 2000 meters of the Pacific ocean reached a record level “by a large margin,” researchers say, “which supports the extreme events witnessed, such as intensive heat waves and deoxygenation, and poses a substantial risk to marine life in this region.”
THE OCEAN IS RELEASING HEAT. WE JUST HAD A FREAKISHLY "MILD” WINTER. BY THIS SUMMER HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS WILL BE DYING IN HEATWAVES.
This has stopped being a "both sides must be respected' and "people can agree to disagree" time in history.
I am forecasting famine deaths in the 800 million to 1.2 billion range over the next 4-6 years.
We are having "existential" crisis's at the Nation state level and at a Global "survival of civilization" level.
Articles like yours, band-aids on sucking chest wounds. Platitudes and feel good pablum that lull people into feeling that the crisis is still off in the distance and the wolf is not at the door, RIGHT NOW.
Let me ask you one last question David, "how warm do you think the MAJORITY of Climate Scientists think it/s going to get by 2100?"
What do Climate Scientists say IN PRIVATE?
A majority of climate scientists think that warming is going to be at least 3℃ or higher.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02990-w?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=6770175a62-briefing-dy-20211102&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-6770175a62-45552674